The Turkish government under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has refused to abandon a low interest rate economic model despite the pace of price rises hitting a 24-year high of above 83%.
While private consumption remained the main driver for economic growth in the first half of 2022, soaring inflation would take a toll on consumer spending the remainder of the year. A survey by Yöneylem Social Research Center in July to August 2022 showed that 69.3% of participants said they were struggling to pay for food.
Is a recession in Turkey imminent as soaring inflation is set to hurt consumer spending, the economy’s main growth engine?
What is a recession?
Recessionis generally defined as a time when economic activity is down. The general consensus is that a recession starts when a nation’s gross domestic products (GDP) declines significantly for two consecutive quarters.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recessions have several common characteristics:
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A recession lasts about a year and causes significant output costs.
It is identified by a 2% decline in GDP growth. During severe recessions, the output cost is close to 5%.
The unemployment rate almost always rises, whileinflationfalls slightly as overall demand for goods and services falls.
International trade shrinks as both exports and imports fall.
Industrial production and investment fall much faster than GDP, while consumption declines just slightly.
Is Turkey recession happening now?
Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed recession in Turkey started in the third quarter of 2018, although the economy still grew by 2.3%. The country’s economy plunged into negative growth for the next three quarters until the second quarter of 2019.
Turkey’s economic crisis in 2018 to 2019 was triggeredby a large current account deficit, mounting foreign currency-denominated private debts, and Erdogan’s economic policy of advocating low central bank interest rates despite high inflation.
The economy started to recover in Q3 2019, recording modest growth of 1% and 6% in the final quarter of 2019. From 2020 to 2021, economic growth experienced a rollercoaster ride. The slowest growth was in Q3 2020, when the economy contracted 10.4%, and the fastest in 2021 when it grew 21.4%.
In 2021, Turkey’s annual GDP growth surged to 11.4%, from 1.9.% in 2020.
Entering 2022, the economy started to cool on external headwinds. These included rising commodity prices triggered by the war in Ukraine and the tightening cycle by central banks, which started to dent growth.
However, strong growth was still recorded compared to other developed nations. In April to June 2022 period, Turkey’s economy grew stronger than expected at 7.6%, despite soaring inflation and the weakening lira. It grew by 7.5% in Q1, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Private consumption had been the main driver in Q2, growing at 22.5% year-on-year (YOY), followed by exports which increased by 16.5%.
Muhammet Mercan, ING Group’s chief economist for Turkey, wrote on 31 August:
“This shows a continuation of robust household consumption driven by negative real rates, leading to fewer savings and supporting the consumption appetite.
“However, we see momentum loss in activity in the second half of this year on the back of deteriorating purchasing power, concerns about policy sustainability, as well as a less supportive global backdrop with tightening global central bank policies and elevated geopolitical risks.”
While not mentioning recession, global investment bank J.P. Morgan forecast Turkey’s economy could contract 2% in the third quarter and zero growth in the final quarter of 2022.
ING Group also forecast Turkey could slip to negative growth of – 1.8% in the first quarter of 2023, from 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Factors are causing Turkey’s recession?
While the current crisis in Turkey is caused by multiple domestic factors, some are the legacy from 2018 to 2019.
Inflation shoots to new 24-year high
For years, Turkey has struggled with inflationary pressure. However, due to stubbornly high energy costs, supply shocks to food and agricultural commodity prices, economic inflation reached new highs in 2022.
By September 2022, annual Turkish inflation indicated in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had surged to a 24-year high of 83.45%, from 48.7% in January 2022. September’s CPI also beat the previous high of 80.2% in August.
Transport recorded the highest annual increase, rising 117.66% YOY. Food and non-alcoholic ranked second with 93.05%
In its inflation report on 27 October, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) revised up its inflation projections for 2022 to 2023.
The bank forecast inflation could reach 65.2% at the end of 2022, up from the previous estimate of 60.4%. For 2023, it expected the rate to stand at 22.3% by end of 2023, up from earlier projection of 19.2% while the pace of price increase was expected to slow to 8.8% at the end of 2024.
Loose monetary policy
Despite the runaway inflation in Turkey, the central bank has continued its low interest rate policy.
CBRT has cut lending rates by a cumulative 850 basis point (bps), lowering the policy rate to 10.50% in October 2022 from 19% in March 2021.
In a statement on 27 October, the bank argued lower interest rate cuts were important to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment amid increasing uncertainties with global growth and further escalation of geopolitical risks.
At the same time, other central banks are taking the opposite approach to taming inflation.
According to ING's Mercan, the existing loose monetary policy will do little to address inflationary pressures.
“The current policy setting does not prioritise disinflation and inflation will likely remain elevated in the near term,” Mercan said on 22 September.
US dollar (USD) to Turkish lira (TRY) live chart
CBRT’s rate cut has put downward pressure on the country’s currency, the Turkish lira (TRY) amid a strengthening US dollar.
As of 1 November, the USD/TRY rate had surged more than 94% to 18.6, from just 3.77 in November 2017, according to data aggregator TradingEconomics. The pair denotes how many Turkish liras (the quoted currency) are required to purchase one US dollar (the base currency).
A weaker lira would inflate Turkey’s import bills of commodities which are priced in US dollars, making imported goods more expensive in the domestic market. Turkey is a net oil and gas importer with domestic production only meeting 7% of its consumption, according to the US International Trade Administration.
Fitch Ratings forecast USD/TRY could rise to 24.90 in 2023 and 27.70 in 2024 from a projected 20 in 2022.
Turkey economic forecast for 2022 and beyond
On 10 October, The World Bank projected Turkey’s economy to slow to 2.7% in 2023, from an estimated 4.7% growth in 2022:
“Economic activity is expected to weaken in the second half of 2022, as macroeconomic volatility intensifies, inflation erodes the purchasing power of households that can no longer front load consumption, and external demand weakens.”
J.P. Morgan’s Turkey economic forecast saw the economy to grow by average 4.5% in 2022, easing to 3.6% in 2023.
ING Group predicted the country’s GDP to grow by 3% in 2023 from an estimated 5% in 2022. The economy was expected to recover at 4% in 2024.
In September, Fitch Ratings revised its forecast for Turkey’s GDP for 2022 to 5.2%, compared to 4.5% in its June’s forecast, on the back of stronger growth in the second quarter. Turkey’s economic growth was expected to slow to 2.9% in 2023 and remain at the same level in 2024.
Data aggregator TradingEconomics forecast Turkey’s GDP growth could reach 5.10% by the end of 2022, before slowing to 3.2% in 2023, based on its econometric models. The service projected the economy to rebound to 4.5% growth in 2024.
Analysts mentioned in this article expected Turkey’s economy to weaken in the final quarter of 2022 and in 2023. According to Morgan and ING Group, the economy may contract briefly in the third or fourth quarters of 2022, indicating a possible recession in Turkey, before recovering to positive growth in the first quarter of 2023.
However, if you're looking for a Turkey recession forecast, keep in mind that a recession is caused by a number of complex factors, making it difficult for analysts to make accurate long-term projections. Analysts’ predictions can be wrong.
Before trading or investing, you should always do your own research. Keep in mind that past performance is not a reliable predictor of future outcomes. Also, never trade with money you can't afford to lose.
Is Turkey in a recession?
Turkey still posted strong economic growth in the six months of this year. Analysts expected the growth could slow considerably in 2023 and 2024. Although, their predictions can be wrong.
Is Turkey under inflation?
Turkey currently has a high inflation with annual inflation rate surged more than 80% in September to a fresh 24 year high.
Will the Turkish lira go up or down?
No one can say for sure. At the time of writing 92 November), Fitch Ratings expected the lira could go down with the USD/TRY pair forecast to reach 27.70 in 2024 from 20 in 2022, reflecting stronger USD.
However, analysts’ predictions can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before trading. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
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ISTANBUL, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Turkey's economy is expected to have expanded 4% in the third quarter and will grow 5% overall in 2022, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, after the central bank embarked on an easing cycle to counter an economic slowdown despite soaring inflation.What is happening to Turkey's economy? ›
Turkey's economy is in tatters. Runaway inflation and a collapsing lira are pushing millions of Turks to the brink of financial ruin and slamming factories, farmers and retailers across the country.What are the current economic challenges being faced by Turkey? ›
High private sector debt, persistent current account deficits, high inflation, and high unemployment have been exacerbated by macro-financial instability since August 2018. The Government's economic policy response to COVID-19 was swift but focused on loose monetary policy and rapid credit expansion.Is Turkey financially stable? ›
Turkey's current economic situation is dire. The country is heavily indebted to international investors — to the tune of $451 billion, according to the latest data. The short-term external national debt is $185.3 billion.What will Turkey do after 2023? ›
First, Turkey aims to achieve all EU membership conditions and become an influential EU member state by 2023. Second, it will continue to strive for regional integration, in the form of security and economic cooperation. Third, it will seek to play an influential role in regional conflict resolution.Is the Turkey a rich or poor country? ›
Inflation has raced higher since last autumn when the central bank gradually cut its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14%, in an unorthodox easing cycle sought by President Tayyip Erdogan that set off a lira crisis.Will Turkish lira go up or down in 2022? ›
The USD/TRY exchange rate moved to the 11 level in late December as the lira attempted to rebound from the crash, but has resumed its decline in 2022, with the pair returning to the record 18 mark, trading at 18.6 as of 21 November.Is Turkey suffering from hyperinflation? ›
Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council — that's Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — with Turkish subsidiaries had to adopt “hyperinflation reporting” in the first half of 2022, Fitch wrote this week, as cumulative inflation in Turkey over the last three years surpassed a whopping ...What are the top 3 economic sectors for Turkey? ›
|Economic Trivia||The agriculture sector accounts for 25% of employment.|
|Trade Note: Top 3 trade partners are calculated by imports + exports.||Top 3 Trade Partners (2019): Germany, Russia, and China Top 3 Exported Goods (2019): Motor Vehicles & Parts, Industrial Machinery, and Iron & Steel|
Argentina and Turkey are currently experiencing the highest inflation rates in the G20. In October 2022, Turkey's rate reached 85.51% (compared with prices in October 2021).Is Turkey in the 90 day rule? ›
- The length of stay provided by visa or visa exemption cannot exceed 90 days within each 180 days. The regulation of 90 days of stay within the last 180 days is binding for all foreigners that will travel to Türkiye.Is Turkey a 3rd world country? ›
Examples of second-world countries by this definition include almost all of Latin and South America, Turkey, Thailand, South Africa, and many others. Investors sometimes refer to second world countries that appear to be headed toward first world status as "emerging markets" instead.Why is Turkey's economy falling? ›
The crisis was caused by the Turkish economy's excessive current account deficit and large amounts of private foreign-currency denominated debt, in combination with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's increasing authoritarianism and his unorthodox ideas about interest rate policy.Why Turkey is not a developed country? ›
The World Bank classifies Turkey as an upper-middle income country in terms of the country's per capita GDP. The CIA World Factbook adds Turkey to its list of developed countries (DCs) due to the country's status as a founding member of the OECD.Is Turkey the poorest country in Europe? ›
Ukraine. With a per capita GNI of $3,540, Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe as of 2020.Which country is No 1 poor country? ›
Burundi is the world's poorest country followed by Central African Republic, DR Congo, South Sudan and Somalia as the poorest. The richest countries are Luxembourg, Singapore, Ireland, Qatar and Switzerland. Soberingly, 19 of the 20 poorest countries are all located in Africa.What is the poorest part of Turkey? ›
Research from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) once again reveals that the poorest cities in Turkey are in the Kurdish provinces in the east and southeast.Will Turkish lira go up or down? ›
FocusEconomics panelists expect the TRY to end 2022 at 14.02 per USD. In 2023, the lira is expected to perform significantly worse, ending the year at 14.15 per USD.How Turkish people deal with inflation? ›
In fact, economic experts consider Erdoğan's strategy economically unorthodox. Nevertheless, to ease the economic situation for citizens, in February 2022, the Turkish government decided to address rising inflation by reducing the value-added tax (VAT) on basic food items from 8% to 1%.
Buy Selected Data.
|External Debt (USD mn)||444,392.4 Jun 2022|
|External Debt: % of GDP (%)||54.2 2021|
|External Debt: Short Term (USD mn)||134,546.0 Jun 2022|
|External Debt: Short Term: % of GDP (%)||14.9 2021|
When is the Best Time to Buy Turkish Lira? Buying Turkish Lira before you go means you won't need to worry about exchanging money after you land. You'll also avoid more expensive rates at tourist hotspots, where they tend to be less favourable.Is it better to buy lira in Turkey or UK? ›
It's usually best to obtain your Turkish liras in Turkey rather than before you leave home, as the exchange rates outside Turkey are usually not as good as those inside the country. The easiest way to get cash liras is to stick your home bank card or credit card into a Turkish ATM (bancomat/cashpoint, cash machine).Is it better to take lira or Euros to Turkey? ›
It is against the law in Turkey to refuse to take Lira. So best to use it. If you have Euros you want to spend. The Airport Shops sell in Euros.How can you protect yourself from hyperinflation? ›
- TIPS. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. ...
- Cash. Cash is often overlooked as an inflation hedge, says Arnott. ...
- Short-term bonds. ...
- Stocks. ...
- Real estate. ...
- Gold. ...
- Commodities. ...
Turkish inflation exceeded 80% for the first time since September 1998, as policies that prioritized economic growth and cheap lending exact a toll on the lira and price stability.What is Turkey's main source of income? ›
Turkey's largely free-market economy is driven by its industry and, increasingly, service sectors, although its traditional agriculture sector still accounts for about 25% of employment.What is the best sector to invest in Turkey? ›
- Istanbul Stock Exchange (BİST) The stock market is known as the name of the market where the transactions continue through a broker. ...
- Precious Metals like Gold or Silver. ...
- Forex. ...
- Logistics. ...
- Health Sector. ...
- Tourism. ...
- Real Estate.
In 2021, Turkey exported over 24 billion U.S. dollars worth of vehicles and vehicle parts (excluding railway or tramway rolling-stock), making this the largest commodity the country exported worldwide in that year.Which country is inflation free? ›
The 20 countries with the lowest inflation rate in 2021 (compared to the previous year)
|Characteristic||Inflation rate compared to previous year|
Inflation Can Also Help Lenders
On top of this, the higher prices of those items earn the lender more interest. For example, if the price of a television increases from $1,500 to $1,600 due to inflation, the lender makes more money because 10% interest on $1,600 is more than 10% interest on $1,500.
With an inflation rate that has soared above one million percent in recent years, Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the world.What is the 90 180 rule? ›
The 90/180-day rule allows you to spend exactly 90 days in any country in the Schengen area, in Germany, within any 180-day period. The “any” 180-day period is usually referred to as a “rolling” or “moving” timeframe, which is counted backwards on each day of stay in the Schengen area.Can you hold hands in Turkey? ›
It is impolite to stand with your hands on your hips when talking to others – or to put your hands in your pockets. Good friends will often touch each other (it's common for women to hold hands with women, and the same for men), but you will rarely see members of the opposite sex touching in public.What happens if I overstay in Turkey? ›
The Legal Consequences of Overstaying
For a period of time, you are blocked from entering Turkey. If you are still in the country, you will be deported and fined.
Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, has its second largest army and is the host of the Allied Land Command headquarters. The Incirlik and Konya Airbases have both been involved in several NATO military operations since their establishment. The current Ambassador to NATO is Basat Öztürk.Is Turkey a good place to live? ›
Living in Turkey is a dream of many. Turkey has beautiful natural landscapes, a rich history, delicious cuisine, an interesting culture full of unique traditions, and kind people all around – all mixed with a warm and pleasant climate that is perfect for living.Does Turkey have poverty? ›
More than 76.5 million people in Turkey are currently living below the poverty line, corresponding to more than 90% of the country's population, daily Sözü said, citing a new report by Turkey's Consumer Rights Association (THD).Is it good to invest in Turkey? ›
Turkey has always been favored thanks to its geopolitical location and hospitality. These features make it a significant hub for drawing local and global investors in a variety of sectors, including tourism and real estate, which have resulted in piqued investor interest.Will the Turkish economy recover? ›
Following very high growth in 2021, Turkey's economic growth outlook is beset by macro-financial uncertainty. As in 2021, growth in 2022 is expected to be largely driven by a continued strong rebound in exports. The composition of growth is projected to continue shifting towards external demand.
For 2021, an inflation rate of 19.6% was calculated. During the observation period from 1960 to 2021, the average inflation rate was 32.0% per year. Overall, the price increase was 616,541,867.63%. An item that cost 100 liras in 1960 costs 616,541,967.63 liras at the beginning of 2022.Are Turkey's Old World or New world? ›
Domestic turkeys come from the Wild Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo), a species that is native only to the Americas. In the 1500s, Spanish traders brought some that had been domesticated by indigenous Americans to Europe and Asia.Is Turkey a good place to live 2022? ›
Turkey is a beautiful country with so much to offer expats and digital nomads. If you're looking for the best places to live in Turkey, in this guide, you'll find the best cities that come highly recommended. Turkey is often chosen by expats and digital nomads because of its great lifestyle and friendly people.What is Turkey's inflation rate 2022? ›
CPI inflation rate in Turkey 2016-2022
Turkey's inflation rate was 85.51 percent in October 2022, the highest inflation rate recorded during the provided time period. Since late 2019, the inflation rate of Turkey has consistently been in double figures, with inflation accelerating fastest in the recent months.
GDP in Turkey is expected to reach 840.00 USD Billion by the end of 2022, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Turkey GDP is projected to trend around 900.00 USD Billion in 2023 and 850.00 USD Billion in 2024, according to our econometric models.Why is there a Turkey shortage in 2022? ›
Avian influenza and inflation have led to a turkey shortage and higher turkey prices for ... [+] (Photo by James Carbone/Newsday RM via Getty Images). Thanksgiving 2022 is less than a week away, and it's time to talk turkey.What are the disadvantages of living in Turkey? ›
The most important disadvantage of living in this country is related to its language. The people of this country usually speak to everyone in Istanbul Turkish and have little command of English. The important point is the high cost of energy consumption in this country, which you should pay attention to.Which city is the best to live in Turkey? ›
- Istanbul. Best Place for Expats. ...
- Ankara. Best Place for Digital Nomads. ...
- Antalya. Best Place for History Enthusiasts. ...
- Izmir. Best Place for Solo Travelers. ...
- Fethiye. Best Place for Groups. ...
- Altinkum. Best Place for English Speakers. ...
- Bursa. Best Place for Couples. ...
- Bodrum. Best Place for Families.
High-end traveller: 5000 TRY / person / day
A generous budget of 276 USD per person per day (or 1932 USD/week) is more than enough for Istanbul.
Turkey's lira lost 44% of its value in 2021, due in large part to a refusal by the president — who essentially controls the levers of the Turkish central bank — to raise interest rates to rein in inflation.
Turkey Producer Inflation Hits Fresh Record High
Similarly, prices increased for intermediate goods (123.12%); durable consumer goods (98.65%); non-durable consumer goods (132.88%); and capital goods (95.61%). On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 7.83%, almost doubling from 4.78% in September.
The USDA recommends that, for optimal safety, you should buy a fresh turkey within one or two days of when you plan to serve it. Fresh turkeys, like other fresh meat and poultry, are highly perishable. You need to be careful when purchasing and storing them to avoid spoilage.Will turkey be hard to find this year? ›
Expect a turkey shortage of 20% for Thanksgiving 2022.
Avian flu has killed more than 45 million birds since 2022 started, and numbers aren't slowing down. Overall turkey production is down due to the bird flu. Poultry industry leader Hormel is predicting they'll have 20% fewer turkeys available through early 2023.
You should only buy a fresh bird about a day or two before you intend to cook it, which means you should plan to procure your fresh turkey no earlier than two days before Thanksgiving.